In my three decades in the financial industry, I have witnessed the steady evolution of India’s economic prowess, cementing its position as an economy to watch out for. Persistently advancing, our country has maintained a steady pace of growth, scaling to become the fifth-largest economy in the world and contributing around 15% to global growth. My extensive travels across different regions of the country have unequivocally reaffirmed my conviction that India has embarked upon a path of sustained multi-decadal growth. Big-ticket reforms and a change in the social system through poverty alleviation are ushering in a new era of economic fortitude. Under the leadership of Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Government of India has taken some formative steps to empower Bharat.
My roots in rural India have helped me witness the pivotal role of agriculture. Over the years, I have seen up close the advancement in this space. Modernisation initiatives and the use of science and technology have yielded better agricultural output. In recent years, India has rapidly emerged as a net exporter of agricultural products. In 2020-21, exports of agriculture and allied products from India grew by 18 per cent over the previous year. During 2021-22, agricultural exports reached an all-time high of US$ 50.2 billion. Mechanisation initiatives, encouraging crop diversification, use of technology to build market linkages, and the creation of the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund have been game changers. In addition, income support to farmers through the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) and enhancing access to agricultural credit have provided financial security to farmers.
India however has gradually evolved from being an agrarian economy. At the heart of this new India lies the creation of a single market through which Goods, Services and Capital can move around freely and has significantly boosted the economy. India’s unique ecosystem of Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) has been at the forefront of technological adoption and innovation within the financial system through India Stack. The foundation laid has created seamless linkages that have improved the ease of doing business, increased the productivity and efficiency of government systems, and improved the quality of life for citizens. A case in point is the linkage of the tax system in every part of the country that has improved tax collection efficiencies manifold. I strongly believe that an improving tax-to-GDP ratio as a result of efficient tax collection, can pave the way for future tax cuts, spurring consumption in the country.
We believe India’s growth can be fired by a double engine i.e., led by services and manufacturing. India is already a significant player in global services. However, it is now focussing on growing its share of manufacturing. India targets to grow its domestic manufacturing through reforms while providing incentives to grow exports. With a focus on encouraging domestic production and increasing exports, India is striving to harness its potential across the four factors of production which are land, labour, capital, and entrepreneurship. I believe India is amidst a major growth cycle in manufacturing for the next decade. India should gain the most from the structural advantages of a large workforce, competitive wages, high literacy, robust domestic demand, and strong engineering skillsets. We have already demonstrated our ability to manufacture for the world in sectors such as Automobiles, Specialty Chemicals, Electronics and Building materials.
With a teaming 140 crore in human capital, we surpassed China to become the most populous in the world. But more than being a challenge, India’s young working population is likely to lead a new consumption boom that could last multiple decades, more so in the next 10 years. The country¬’s Gen Z and millennials account for 50% of the total population and are focused on lifestyle spending. A young working population, higher per capita GDP (and disposable income) that increases the propensity to spend, rapid urbanization, nuclearization of families, and rising awareness as well as aspiration levels fuelled by social media are set to take consumption to the next level.
India holds a favourable position in various global indices, and this is expected to strengthen in the future, propelled by different economic and social welfare measures for well-rounded growth. It is my conviction that India is on its path to becoming self-sufficient on all parameters, characteristic of a country that is ready to unleash its full potential, as it primes its position on the world stage.
This authored article was first published on Moneycontrol.